POVEZIVANJE ISHODA FUDBALSKIH UTAKMICA SA FINANSIJSKOM VOLATILNOŠĆU: ANALIZA SPORTSKIH I BERZANSKIH POKAZATELJA
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46793/ManagSport17-1.210PKljučne reči:
tržište kapitala, sportski učinak, volatilnost, efikasnost tržišta, analiza vremenskih serijaApstrakt
U radu se istražuje priroda korelacije između sportskih postignuća fudbalskog kluba Mančester Junajted i kretanja cene njegovih akcija na berzi tokom 2025. godine. Cilj istraživanja je utvrđivanje stepena u kojem ishodi utakmica determinišu tržišnu vrednost kluba u uslovima savremenog sportskog biznisa. Metodologija rada se oslanja na analizu vremenskih serija, kao i na komparativnu analizu dobijenih podataka. Analitički postupak obuhvata testiranje stacionarnosti ADF testom, proveru prisustva heteroskedastičnosti ARCH testom, kao i ispitivanje strukturnih lomova putem Bai-Perron testa unutar programskog paketa EViews. Rezultati ukazuju na izuzetno slabu pozitivnu linearnu povezanost (r = 0,044), što sugeriše da izolovani sportski uspeh nije primarni pokretač tržišne vrednosti. Visoke vrednosti spljoštenosti i asimetrije distribucije, uz odsustvo trajnih strukturnih lomova, ukazuju na postojanje kratkoročnih volatilnih šokova koji se brzo amortizuju. Potvrda hipoteze o slaboj formi tržišne efikasnosti sugeriše da sportski uspeh ne determiniše kretanje cena akcija u posmatranom periodu, dok se zabeležene promene mogu objasniti delovanjem eksternih faktora koji su ostali izvan okvira ovog modela.
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