SCOREBOARD AND STOCKBOARD LINKING MATCH OUTCOMES WITH FINANCIAL VOLATILITY IN FOOTBALL
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.46793/ManagSport17-1.210PKeywords:
capital market, sporting performance, volatility, market efficiency, time series analysisAbstract
This paper investigates the nature of the correlation between the sporting performance of Manchester United Football Club and its share price movements on the stock exchange during 2025. The primary objective of this research is to determine the extent to which match outcomes drive the club's market value within the contemporary sports industry. The methodology relies on time series analysis alongside a comparative analysis of the acquired data. The analytical procedure encompasses stationarity testing via the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, checking for heteroscedasticity using the ARCH test, and examining structural breaks through the Bai-Perron test, executed within the EViews software package. The results indicate an exceptionally weak positive linear correlation (r = 0.044), suggesting that isolated sporting success is not the primary driver of market value. High levels of kurtosis and skewness in the distribution, coupled with the absence of permanent structural breaks, indicate the presence of short-term volatility shocks that dissipate rapidly. The confirmation of the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis suggests that sporting performance does not dictate share price movements during the observed period; rather, the recorded fluctuations may be attributed to external factors outside the scope of this model.
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